Monday, September 27, 2004

Analogy anyone?

Yes, yes, we have all heard the comparison of current U.S.-Iraq situation and the Vietnam War a million times. And the president, ever the optimist, instead chose to compare the "recon(de-)construction" of Iraq to the rebuilding of Europe after WWII during his acceptance speech at RNC. Been a lover of history, and a sucker for analogy (damn you SAT!) I thought, "why stop at these two?" Let me see.
1) The American government is supporting a strongman ruler, without the mandate of the people, in a country that never had stable democracy.
2) The American military offering weapons and training to an increasingly demoralized army.
3) The country is sinking deeper into chaos, with a possible civil war on the horizon.
4) The rebels control large areas of the country side with growing popular support, while the U.S. recognized government holding desperately on to the urban centers.
5) Foreign elements have infiltrated the country to assist the insurgence while furthering their own agenda.
6) The American government is determined to win because it believes in the absolute necessity to stop what it considers to be the number 1 threat to its security.

In his speech to the UN, Generalissimo Allawi...I mean, Prime minister. You see where I'm going on this. If you replace Allawi (1), Iraq 2004 (2,3), Islamic extremists (4), al quaeda (5), and terrorism (6) with Chiang Kai-shek, China 1946, red army, Soviets, and international communism, most of them fit. Of course, the similarities really stops here, but it is the possibility of a civil war that really worries me. The world needs to prevent this from happening, but my gut feeling is that any foreign military presence, especially that of the U.S., will only add fuel to the conflict, confuse the motives of the dissatisfied Iraqis, and result in a bloody mess.

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